An Estimate of Bitcoin’s Production and Electrical Cost — a Historic Floor in Bitcoin’s Price.     Takeaways Bitcoin’s electricity consumption can be used to estimate Bitcoin’s Production Cost Bitcoin’s Production Cost can be used to estimate Miner profitability Bitcoin Mining has historically been a very profitable business 2019 has been the worst year for […]

The Intrinsic Value of Bitcoin as Determined by Energy Spent     Take-aways Energy, raw Joules alone, can be used to estimate Bitcoin’s fair value Increased energy input increases the fair value of a Bitcoin (and vice versa for decreases) Bitcoin’s price is mean reverting to its Energy Value The Energy Value model states that […]

Hash ribbons is on the brink of inversion. That’s news you never want to hear. Inversion signals a downturn in hashrate. It’s a leading indicator of miner capitulation. Bitcoin (BTC) is dangling on the edge of a cliff.     What is miner capitulation? Small miners get backed into a corner when BTC price is […]

Over the last 3 years, Bitcoin has been centralising into the hands of a select few organizations. The use of Bitcoin for transaction settlement is also changing — Bitcoin is moving off-chain.     Summary Bitcoin’s primary use cases today point towards centralization More Bitcoin is now stored on centralized platforms than ever before, up […]

On the Massive growth of the Bitcoin Derivatives market and its implications on Bitcoin’s future.     In 2019, the primary use of Bitcoin remains investing and speculation. At face value, a look at Bitcoin’s spot market volume paints a bleak picture. Diving deeper we see a thriving derivatives market showing that Bitcoin’s liquidity is […]

The idea that somehow bitcoin can be banned by governments is the final stage of grief, right before acceptance. The consequence of the statement is an admission that bitcoin “works.” In fact, it posits that bitcoin works so well that it will threaten the incumbent government-run monopolies on money in which case governments will regulate […]

Many cryptographic standards widely used in commercial applications were developed by the U.S. Government’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Normally government involvement in developing ciphers for public use would throw up red flags, however all of the algorithms are part of the public domain and have been analyzed and vetted by professional cryptographers […]

When miners give up, it is possibly the most powerful Bitcoin buy signal ever.     n August, I wrote an article on using Bitcoin’s Hash Rate to find major Bitcoin price bottoms based on miner capitulation (you can find it here). Just days before, WillyWoo published an indicator using Bitcoin’s Difficulty to achieve a similar […]

Editor’s Note: This essay was co-authored by Ryan Gentry and Matt Shapiro. Disclosure: Multicoin has established, maintains and enforces written policies and procedures reasonably designed to identify and effectively manage conflicts of interest related to its investment activities. Multicoin Capital abides by a “No Trade Policy” for the assets listed in this report for 3 days (“No Trade Period”) following […]

Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors are looking forward to the day central banks will start stockpiling the digital asset as the hunger for hard assets increases. Central banks around the world are moving towards gold as a store of value as de-dollarization picks up pace as US wars continue with China, Iran, Russia and other sanction-able […]