Bear Market Musings

The Bear market can be brutal

Remember how exuberant we all were at the end of 2017 about crypto?  Remember the general sentiment about how 2018 was going to melt everyone’s face off? We all dreamed of rocketing to the moon in our crypto-powered Lambos.

Oops.

Yeah, 2018 has been that kind of year.  Rough, full of losses and bloody to trade most crypto-currency in.  Sometimes it’s best to take a break when the market has yet to fully capitulate and rebuild.

Let’s not overreact to today’s crypto market

Before delving entirely into this topic, let’s pull back and take a macro view of crypto-currency as a technology.

Despite this down year, we are still on the cusp of either widespread acceptance of Bitcoin, a compelling use case for Ethereum d-apps, or a mainstream breakthrough for everyday small and quick transactions. To date none of this has really happened yet on a large scale for the mainstream consumer. (I know XRP/Ripple has a ton of banking adoptions this year).

However, it is important to continually pull back the lens, refresh your intuitions and look at this from the perspective of 1994 Internet. Bitcoin has only been around since 2009 and it has seen rapid growth over the past 3 years. Prior to then, the momentum was steady, but it was slow and filled with down months. All crypto-coins have taken awhile to gain value, with a few explosions; the general trend is a slow climb up over years.

This market cycle is normal

This slow climb is where I base my bullish projections and why this article isn’t going to spread any fear of the unknown.  The market simply has relevance and is only going to grow at a macro level.

What I can impart is that if you believe in blockchain technology, in decentralized currency or in the advantages that crypto-currency brings to the world, you have a compelling reason to invest with a long term strategy and view.

Remember – This is the natural technological progression of currency from rocks to minerals to paper to digital. It’s coming regardless of what people say today. The only question is who will be there early enough to make large profits from it? If you’ve followed along and have money in crypto so far, then you are an early adopter who can make money in crypto markets as the cycles continue.

Avoiding mistakes of the past

Cycles are painful as often or more than they are pleasant.  Most people will give up or call it all a scam since they didn’t follow the principles of Technical Analysis to protect themselves from selling at the bottom or buying at the top.

The biggest mistake I have seen people make in stocks and now crypto-coins is doing exactly this.

They will see Bitcoin approaching $7,500 and go all-in, then when it drops down to $5900, they will sell based off of fear, unknown and doubt (FUD). When trading anything dealing in markets, you must always maintain your sobriety and never let emotions get in the way of a good trade.

I’ve found that keeping a journal with reasons for each trade (where I have to justify it to myself) is a great way to introduce accountability and sobriety with my trades.

People also take losses in every market by trying to time the market and guessing wrong. As I’ve seen with day trading crypto, trading the chops (when the coin goes up and down within a small percentage repeatedly) is a very hard thing to do correctly and it often results in losses.

Other people play it correctly enough to add to their holdings. Some short calls are right in sight and “easy” to pull off with some patience if you recognize what the chart is telling you through sound Technical Analysis (TA) principles.

Learn TA principals

If you are not familiar with charts and TA, then start very small and learn through trial and error. Your best bet is to stick with us on CoinSavage.com to learn what our panel of experts are predicting for the markets ahead. If you would like to do some extra self-teaching (always recommended) there are several videos on youtube that can help you learn some of the terminology, formations and methods of trading. A good youtube series to look at are the ones done by Your Trading Coach (https://www.youtube.com/yourtradingcoach). Another great resource for crypto trading information is https://www.TechnicallyCrypto.com among many, many others.

Why do you want to learn chart patterns?These chart patterns will allow you to predict which direction the coin is going in and how far. This will be very familiar to you if you’ve traded stocks before. If you do learn them well, you will be ahead of most in the crypto world. This means making more money.

In conclusion

Overall, despite how Lambo free this year has been for the majority of us, it’s necessary to step back. Remember the underlying principles of crypto, market cycles and relax. This journey has only just begun.

___

Did you know that you can follow this author’s market performance? Visit the Leaderboard to see if they are worth reading.